[WORKING PAPERS]

"Information Societies or “ICT equipment societies”? Measuring the digital information processing capacity of a society in bits and bytes" (submitted 2008), Martin Hilbert, Priscila López, Cristián Vásquez 

ABSTRACT
The digital divide is conventionally measured in terms of ICT equipment diffusion, such as computers or phones. The present study fine-tunes these approximations by estimating the amount of digital information that is stored, communicated and computed in terms of bits and bytes. This includes the consideration of technology performance, such as bandwidth. This leads to new insights. Comparing the OECD with Latin America and the Caribbean, the digital divide in terms of the absolute number of ICT equipment is decreasing rapidly (as advanced markets reach saturation), but not so in terms of their information processing capacity. It shows, for example, that in 1996 the average inhabitant of the OECD had a capacity of 49 kibps more then its counterpart from the developing world. Ten years later, this gap widened to 577 kibps per inhabitant. This new approach towards the quantification of the digital divide leads to numerous new challenges on the research agenda. 

"The maturing concept of e-democracy: from e-voting and online consultations, to democratic value out of jumbled online chatter" (submitted 2008), Martin Hilbert

ABSTRACT
Early literature on e-democracy was dominated by euphoric claims about the benefits of e-voting (digital direct democracy) or continuous online citizen consultations (digital representative democracy). Initially high expectations have gradually been replaced with more genuine approaches that aim at breaking with the dichotomy of traditional notions of direct and representative democracy. The ensuing question relates to the adequate design of ICT applications to foster such visions. This article contributes to this search and discusses related issues concerning the adequate institutional framework. Recently, so-called Web 2.0 applications, such as social networking and Wikipedia, have proven that it is possible for millions of users to collectively create meaningful content online. While these recent developments are not necessarily labelled as e-democracy literature, this article argues that related applications have the potential to fulfil the promise of breaking with the longstanding democratic trade-off between group size (direct mass voting on predefined issues) and depth of argument (deliberation and discourse in a small group). Complementary information structuring techniques are at hand to facilitate large-scale deliberations and the negotiation of interests between members of a group. Three of them are presented in more depth, including weighted preference voting, argument visualization and the Semantic Web initiative. Notwithstanding, the maturing concept of e-democracy still faces serious challenges. Remaining questions relate to political- and computer science alike and ask about adequate institutional frameworks, the omnipresent democratic challenges of equal access and free participation, and the appropriate technological design. 

"Foresight tools for participative policy-making in inter- governmental processes in developing countries: Lessons learned from the eLAC Policy Priorities Delphi" (submitted 2008), Martin Hilbert, Ian Miles, Julia Othmer

ABSTRACT
Purpose: The paper reports on lessons learned from a foresight exercise in Latin America and the Caribbean. It provides evidence that Delphi methods, through online and offline tools, can make policy-making in developing countries more participatory, fostering transparency and accountability of public decision-making. 
Design/methodology/approach: A five-round Delphi exercise (with 1,454 contributions), based on the priorities of the 2005-2007 Latin American and Caribbean Action Plan for the Information Society (eLAC2007), was implemented.  This exercise aimed at identifying future priorities that offered input into the inter-governmental negotiation of a 2008-2010 Action Plan (eLAC2010). 
Findings: In addition to the specific policy guidance provided, the major lessons learned include (1) the potential of Policy Delphi methods to introduce transparency and accountability into public decision-making, especially in developing countries; (2) the utility of foresight exercises to foster multi-agency networking in the development community; (3) the usefulness of embedding Policy Delphi exercises into established mechanisms of representative democracy and international multilateralism, such as the United Nations; and (4) the potential of online tools to facilitate participation in resource-scarce developing countries. 
Practical implications: Two different types of practical implications have been observed. One is the governments’ acknowledgement of the value of collective intelligence from civil society, academic and private sector participants of the Delphi and the ensuing appreciation of participative policy-making. The other is the demonstration of the role that can be played by the United Nations (and potentially by other inter-governmental agencies) in international participatory policy-making in the digital age, especially if they modernize the way they assist member countries in developing public policy agendas.
Originality/value: This is believed to be the most extensive online participatory policy-making foresight exercise in the history of intergovernmental processes in the developing world to date.